paper-conference

This paper introduces a novel framework for distributional forecasting of order fulfillment time, leveraging Conformal Predictive Systems and Cross Venn-Abers Predictors—model-agnostic techniques that provide rigorous coverage or validity guarantees. The proposed machine learning methods integrate granular spatiotemporal features, capturing fulfillment location and carrier performance dynamics to enhance predictive accuracy. Additionally, a cost-sensitive decision rule is developed to convert probabilistic forecasts into reliable point predictions. Experimental evaluation on a large-scale industrial dataset achieves up to 14% higher prediction accuracy and up to 75% improvement in identifying late deliveriesc compared to rule-based methods.

This work proposes SPOT, an end-to-end approach that integrates the benefits of machine learning (ML) and optimization for load consolidation. The ML component plays a key role in the planning phase by identifying the consolidation points through spatio-temporal clustering and constrained frequent itemset mining, while the optimization selects the most cost effective feasible consolidation routes for a given operational day. Extensive experiments conducted on industrial load data demonstrate that SPOT significantly reduces travel distance and transportation costs (by about 50% on large terminals) compared to the existing industry-standard load planning strategy and a neighborhood-based heuristic. Moreover, the ML component provides valuable tactical-level insights by identifying frequently recurring consolidation opportunities that guide proactive planning. In addition, SPOT is computationally efficient and can be easily scaled to accommodate large transportation networks. The conference acceptance rate was 13%.